DYNAMICS OF TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS MORBIDITY IN VINNYTSIA

Abstract

One of the most widely spread diseases is tick-borne encephalitis. Most frequently the growth of tick-borne encephalitis cases are connected with the intense activity of these parasites in the period from April to September. Tick-borne encephalitis is spread in all the countries of the world and the morbidity level is within the 300 to 500 cases per hundred thousand population.

The object of the study in the given research is tick-borne encephalitis incidence in Vinnytsia, this disease is one of the most common viral disease. Determination of the regression dependence, describing the dynamics of tick-borne encephalitis incidence of the population in Vinnytsia is relevant scientific-engineering problem. Objective of the research is determination of the regression dependence, which describes the dynamics of the tick-borne encephalitis incidence of the population in Vinnytsia, this dependence can be used for the prediction of the incidence rate of the disease. In the course of the study method of regression analysis of the results of single-factor experiments and other paired dependences with the selection of the rational type of function from sixteen most widely used variants by the criterion of maximum value of the correlation factor was used. Regression was carried out on the base of linearized transformations which enable to reduce non-linear dependence to linear one. Determination of the coefficients of regression equations was performed, applying the method of least squares by means of the developed computer program "RegAnaliz", protected by the Certificate of the State registration of the rights to the copyright object. Adequate regression power dependence, describing the dynamics of the tick-borne encephalitis incidence of the population in Vinnytsia was obtained, the dependence can be used for the prediction of the incidence rate of the disease. Graphic interpretation of the dependence, describing the dynamics of tick-borne encephalitis incidence of the population in Vinnytsia was constructed, it enables to illustrate this dependence and show the sufficient convergence of the theoretical results with actual ones.