IMPROVEMENT OF THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF THE FINE DUST EMISSION IMPACT ON THE CIRCULATORY DISEASES MORBIDITY
Keywords:mathematical simulation, experiment planning, multifactor dependence, impact factors, response surface, emissions, fine dust particles, morbidity, diseases of circulatory system
Object of the research in the paper is the circulatory diseases morbidity in Ukraine. World Health Organization (WHO) established that fine dust particles influence more people all over the world than any other pollutants. Air pollution causes the growth of the morbidity rate and mortality rate in the world and is the priority factor of risk for the health of people, in addition, more than 80 % of the diseases depend on the air quality. That is why, the improvement of the mathematical model of the impact of fine dust particles emission on the circulatory diseases morbidity rate, which can be used for the prediction of such morbidity indices is the relevant scientific-engineering problem.
The study of the fine dust particles emission impact on the circulatory diseases morbidity was performed by means of the experiment planning of the second order, applying Box-Wilson method with the help of rotatable central composition design, using the developed software, protected by the Certificate of the State Registration of the Rights to the Copyright Object. Objective of the research is the improvement by means of the multifactor experiment planning the mathematical model of the fine dust particles emissions impact on the circulatory diseases morbidity.
Improved regression dependence of the fine dust particles emission impact on the circulatory diseases morbidity has been obtained. It was established that according to Fishers criterion the hypothesis, regarding the adequacy of the obtained regression model may be considered to be correct with 95 % validity. Correlation coefficient is 0.99865, this proves the sufficient validity of the obtained results. The obtained regression dependence can be used for the prediction of the indices of the circulatory diseases morbidity. Response surfaces of the objective function – number of the cases of circulatory diseases and their 2D cross-sections in the planes of the impact parameters, which enable to represent the obtained dependence and the character of the simultaneous impact of several factors on the objective function have been constructed.