FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION MODELS

Abstract

The paper considers theoretical and applied problems of the elaboration of simulation models for prediction and optimal development of generalized production systems that create material products and services. An essential difference of this work from the analogues consists in that model of development is viewed not as a reflection of the real object development but as a standard to create a new object. Accordingly, the technical system development process is viewed as a parallel interrelated development of the virtual and real systems. The system of models that simulate interrelated development of the system and its model is built.