DYNAMICS OF THE VOLUMES OF OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS TRANSPORTATION IN UKRAINE

Abstract

In the period of 2003 – 2021 annual volumes of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine underwent considerable changes. Determination of regression dependences, describing the dynamics of the volumes of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine is a relevant scientific-engineering problem. Objective of the research is the determination of the regression dependences, which describe the dynamics of the volumes of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine and can be used for the prediction of the needed amount of the transport facilities. In the process of investigations, the method of regression analysis of the results of single-factor experiments and other paired dependences with the selection of rational type of function from the most widely used variants by the criterion of the maximum value of the correlation coefficient was used. Regressions were performed on the base of the linearized transformations, which enable to reduce non-linear dependence to linear ones. Determination of the coefficients of the regression equations was performed, applying the least square method, using the developed computer program "RegAnaliz", protected by the Certificate of state registration of the rights to the copyright object. Adequate regression quadratic dependences, describing the dynamics of the volume of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine by railway and automobile transport have been obtained, they can be used for the prediction of the necessary amount of transport facilities. Graphic dependences describing the dynamics of the volumes of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine and allow to illustrate this dynamics and show the sufficient coincidence of the theoretical results with actual data have been constructed. Using the obtained dependence, it was predicted, that the volumes of oil and petroleum products transportation in Ukraine at the present rates of dynamics in 2025 may reach 18 mil. tons for the railway transport and 0.531 mil. tons for automobile transport.